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Prediction for CME (2024-02-16T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-16T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29261/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the north/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption spanning N40W05 to N25W35 which begins to lift-off around 2024-02-16T02:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible from this region in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops visible in all SDO wavelengths starting around 2024-02-16T05:00Z. There is no clear signature of this CME arrival/glancing blow at L1. There is a minor unclear arrival signature between 2024-02-20T09:15Z and 11Z, with a relatively smooth rotation of magnetic field components, mainly Bz, and an increase in Bt from around 5 nT to 9.5 nT, however this is likely a signature of a streamer blowout.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-19T19:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Feb 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary
...
Other activity included an approximate 20 degree filament eruption
centered near N31W18 at 16/0200 UTC. An associated CME was observed off
the NNW limb at 16/0312 UTC. Modelling indicated a potential grazing
late on 19 Feb to early on 20 Feb.

---------
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Feb 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 17-Feb 19 2024 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 17-Feb 19 2024

             Feb 17       Feb 18       Feb 19
00-03UT       1.00         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       0.67         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       0.00         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         1.67     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         3.00     
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         3.33

Lead Time: 73.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-02-16T17:11Z

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